Before we drafted on Monday, Brett and I were discussing changing the format of the league from a categories league (like Baseball) to a points league (like Fantasy Football.) I had read from various sports columnists, namely Bill Simmons and Matthew Berry, two Basketball nerds, that a Points System was the best way to play Fantasy Basketball. They didn't go into too much detail, they just said it was.
We ended up not switching from categories to points because at the time I A)Couldn't figure out a points format that accurately reflected players rankings compared to ESPN's player Rater and B) Couldn't convince Brett why it's better for us to do a Points format rather than a Categories league.
So we did the draft as a categories league, but I was convinced we could still mak
e this a Points League and that it'd be better for the overall enjoyment of the league.
In order to make the switch, post-draft, I knew the following things had to happen:
1. I needed to come up with a formula that accurately depicted the important aspects of basketball player. (I looked forever online for the format that Simmons/Berry used in a Fan League they did 2 years ago, but to no avail. Strangely, there are no Google-able points formats that I could find. Go figure.)
2. Said formula needed to match up so that the Points Projection Values of players was
damn near identical to what we all drafted for the Categories Projection Values. If it wasn't, then obviously we'd all be pissed off that we drafted a guy who's value is no longer what we drafted it as.
3. I needed to convince you guys that a points format is going to be much more fun than Categories.
I think I've done all three.
1. THE POINT FORMULA
Here’s the point formula, followed by explanation:
FG Made: 2.5, FG Missed: -2
FT Made: 1, FT Missed: -2
3pt Made: 2, 3pt Missed: -.5
Rebounds: .5
Assist: 1, Steals: 1
Blocks: 1.5
Turnovers: -5
Points: .35 per point scored
You can see how it looks here: (full picture seen via this link)
The link you see is the 2009-2010 Stats from the League Average for a team.
On average, every team scored 9217 points, 645 steals, etc. In theory, that means the average player who plays 82 games scores 768 points in a season (9217/12) and so on.
Using that average, I set up the points so that each category would have a weighted value to make up a players points every night.
As you can see from the link, these are how the stats are weighted:
FG%: 5.31%
FT %: 7.46%
3pt%: 12.19% (FG% + 3pt%)
Reb/Assists: About 20% each
Steals/Blocks/Turnovers (6-7% each, with Turnovers having a negative affect)
Points: 33%
The three main stat categories everyone cares about, Points, Assists and Rebounds are weighted the highest. Since Points are what wins games, it makes sense it has 1/3 of all weight points. 3pt% giv
es value to the stat fantasy nerds pay close attention to, 3pt specialists. Anyone who thinks there are blocks specialists is wrong. They are rebound specialists who can also block. Blocks don’t translate to gaining possession, rebounds do. If there’s any debate with the point values, just take each stat and compare the two and it tends to work out.
For instance, what would you rather have: 9 points scored (3.15 value points) or 2 blocks? (3.0 value points)? It can be argued that it’s close, but I think everyone would take the 9 points, right? Also, while I’d rather have a Steal than a Block, Steals happen more often than blocks, so the fact that you only get 1 point vs. 1.5 is countered by the occurances of a steal.)
That’s the formula, I hope it wasn’t too confusing. If it was...the 2nd point is what will make the most sense.
2. WHY THE SWITCH WON’T DRASTICALLY AFFECT PLAYERS VALUES
I took the top 50 Paid for Players in our draft. From Kevin Durant ($170) to John Wall ($22). I took all of their 2011 ESPN Projected Per/Game stats and plugged those stats into the formula.
Here’s what the top 42 would look like based on the projections. (Also can be seen as a bigger picture via this link)
The bold number at the end tells you what that player would score per game if he were to do exactly what ESPN projects him to do.
As you can see, it’s fairly in line with what we drafted. The only blips are, what I’d argue to be, people either overpaying or under paying for players.
For instance, based on ESPN projections, I clearly overpaid for Stephen Curry. That’s evident in the points format, but I think it’s probably true in the categories, too. Thing is, I think he’ll be better than the projections and I expect that he’ll be right in line with what I paid for him when the season’s over.
Other guys who might have been overvalued: Tyreke Evans (ROY but it’s not like he’s the 16th best player in the league, right?), Jason Kidd (who is almost a corpse) and Ray Allen (See: Kidd, Jason and/or his Game 7 Finals performance last year)
Supposed steals from the draft: David Lee (Guy was 6th on the Player Rater--using the category format--last year and goes as the 24th highest paid player in the auction...that’s a steal), Brook Lopez ( 11th in PR last year), and Boozer (13th PR last year)
All of the steals line up, and all of the overvalued guys line up.
Even in ESPN.com’s Love/Hate column it lines up. Guys who are expected to do bad, but the experts think will be good include Kidd and Evans, which means the projections should be lower than what their actual stats will be. Vice versa with David Lee and Boozer, and Bosh.
What I’m trying to say is, the draft would have gone pretty much the same way had we done points.
And less face it, this being the first Auction for many of us, it’s not like we had the bidding process down to a Science anyway, right? So we shouldn’t really over think the idea that we would have drafted any differently if it were a points league. Right?
3. WHY WE SHOULD SWITCH NOW
I’ve used the following tagline when talking to Brenton and Brett, and I think it’s perfect. When you play a points format in basketball, “Every game matters.” Hell, not only every game, but every play.
With categories, say you’ve got someone like Dwight Howard on your team, but you’re near the end of the week and you’re dominating in Rebounds and Blocks, but are behind in assists. You know Dwight’s your best player, but you shuffle around your roster and reluctantly substitute Howard for in Jose Calderon because Mo has 6.9 assits per game to Howards 1.9. That substitution was not a smart strategy move, but a RELUCTANT strategy move. You pretty much had no choice.
That night, Howard goes off for 25 boards and records 5 blocks. He’s on your bench, so it doesn’t matter, but even if he was starting it still wouldn’t have mattered because you were already up in those categories. All of ESPN is talking about the Dwight Howard game, but you couldn’t care less because you were just going for Calderon’s 6 assists.
In a points format, Howard’s game mattered. He performed better than Calderon (assuming Calderon didn’t go off for 50 points or something that night.) In fact, when you were watching the game, every time Howard got a rebound you said, That’s another .75 points! Sure, it doesn’t slip off the tongue very smoothly, but isn’t that more fun? When every single thing your player does during a game is exciting?
Even when Howard’s at the line, you cringe because you know every FT he misses is going to cost you 2 points, but every one he makes gets you 1.35 points (FT made plus Point Scored.) It’s a 3.35 swing on every Free throw. When even the top player (Durant) scores only 30 points a game, 3.35 for just one Free Throw is a pretty big deal!
Sidenote: You still shouldn’t be discouraged by Howard’s low FT%, seeing as how his other stats more than make up for it, he’s projected to be in the top 10 for points scoring under the Formula.
LASTLY, I've heard that categories works in baseball, so it should work in basketball, too. That's just wrong. Categories works in baseball because all of the stats are intertwined with each other. For example, when Ryan Howard his a 3 run homer, not only does he get a notch in the HR category, but he gets one in the R category, 3 in the RBI category, and he improves his AVG and OBP. A pitcher who gets 10 Ks probably had a low enough WHIP, ERA and had a good chance to get a QS and the W.
In basketball, when Dwight Howard gets a rebound, he doesn't improve any of his percentages nor does he also get a notch in the Steals, Assists, or Points categories. Sure, a rebound might lead to an easy basket or an assist, but those things aren't guaranteed, whereas they are in baseball.
With a points system, the stats would essentially be intertwined like baseball (because all points from each category would funnel into the same final result: Total Point Value.
That’s a lot to take in, I know, but at least consider it. We can do categories, but I swear the league will be more enjoyable, day by day, especially near the end of each matchup, if we do a points format. Come on, say yes!
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